Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at US Bases in Jordan in Escalation

Oil markets are in focus due to direct attacks on tankers and Iranian threats to shipping near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports, which host US forces. Any rerouting or halting of transits in that area would increase shipping and insurance costs, adding a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices. Iran's threat against US-linked tankers, combined with Washington's vow to continue targeting Iranian tankers in retaliation for attacks on US Navy assets, indicates persistent disruption. With the missile exchange being one of the biggest in months and both sides threatening further escalation, oil traders will likely maintain a high risk premium in the near term.

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Earlier reports:

• Report: several explosions on Kharg Island

What began as a tanker war has escalated into direct attacks on military bases, as Iran and the US exchange strikes and issue explicit threats to Gulf shipping.

Summary

• According to a US official, US forces hit Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island; Iranian state media reported multiple explosions in the area
• Initial reports from Iran indicate that two additional tankers were struck near Jask, roughly 800 km southeast of Kharg
• Iran warned that any further strikes on its tankers would result in retaliation against US bases in the region, and separately ordered crews on US-linked tankers at Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to depart immediately
• Iran launched over 30 ballistic missiles from various locations, with at least 20 directed at the Al Salti and Prince Hassan bases in Jordan, marking one of the largest barrages in months
• Both bases in Jordan were hit by explosions, with unverified accounts of a direct impact and cluster munitions at Muwaffaq Salti; dozens of Patriot interceptors were launched in response
• Secretary of State Rubio warned that Iran would continue to lose tankers if it targets US Navy vessels, and CENTCOM reported that it destroyed five Iranian crude carriers after the IRGC twice targeted a US warship

On Tuesday, US forces again attacked Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island, a US official stated, while Iranian state media reported multiple loud explosions in the region. Early Iranian reports indicated that two additional tankers were struck near Jask, about 800 km southeast of Kharg. Tehran threatened that any more attacks on its oil tankers would provoke retaliation against US bases in the region, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard separately ordered crews on US-linked tankers in and around Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to evacuate their ships immediately, specifically citing both Gulf states as hosts of the US military campaign. Iran retaliated with a massive missile barrage, firing over 30 ballistic missiles from locations such as Yazd, Khomein, Zanjan, Qom, Isfahan, Khorramabad, and Tabriz, with at least 20 directed at the Al Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan, marking one of the largest single volleys in months. Both bases experienced explosions, with early accounts detailing a direct hit and cluster munitions at Muwaffaq Salti, while unofficial sources, as cited by Iran's Tasnim news agency, reported explosions elsewhere in Jordan. Dozens of Patriot interceptors were launched from the Jordanian bases to counter the incoming barrage, with several impacts reportedly still penetrating. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that Iran would continue to lose tankers every time it attacked US Navy ships. US Central Command later stated that its forces had destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers on Tuesday, a retaliation it tied to the IRGC's targeting of a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice in the previous two days.

This exchange represents a significant escalation from the months-long tanker war in the Gulf to direct attacks on military infrastructure and explicit threats to commercial shipping lanes. Kuwait and Bahrain, both hosting substantial US military presence, are now explicitly named as targets, raising the possibility that the conflict could expand beyond Iran and the US to involve other Gulf states. The combination of confirmed US strikes, contested Iranian claims, and rapidly evolving battlefield reports from both sides means the complete picture, including casualty numbers and the exact extent of damage in Jordan, remains unconfirmed and open to revision as further details surface.

Markets will likely concentrate initially on the direct attacks on tanker traffic and the explicit threats to shipping in and around Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports, due to the high concentration of oil infrastructure and export routes in that corridor. Any decision by shipping companies or insurers to reroute or suspend transits through the Gulf would increase already tight freight and insurance costs, introducing a fresh risk premium to crude benchmarks. The magnitude of the missile exchange, along with Washington's declared intention to continue targeting Iranian tankers in response to any further attacks on US Navy assets, indicates that the standoff is unlikely to de-escalate quickly, keeping traders focused on headline risks from the Gulf in the coming sessions.