Nvidia shares climb on record buyback but stall at $232-$234 resistance

For Nvidia and the broader AI complex, the buyback (full story here) sends a constructive message, but price action indicates the market is not ready to embrace those levels yet. Sellers remain apparent around $232-$234, meaning the announcement has so far generated a temporary uptick, not a genuine breakout. A consistent repurchase bid could give buyers support on dips, especially as the upward trendline from mid-September stays intact. What matters most is whether Nvidia can post a daily close above $234-$236 and how quickly it rolls out the program.

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Nvidia is backing its own stock with a record $150 billion, and the next thing the chart has to demonstrate is that buyers can convert a news spike into a close above resistance.

Summary:

• The buyback authorization was increased by a record $150 billion, with the remaining buyback capacity reaching $235 billion, a program Nvidia expects to run through fiscal 2028.
• Monday saw the shares gain nearly 2%, hit $233.21 and finish at $228.86 after running into the $232-$234 resistance band.
• Nvidia is up more than 20% since the start of the year and, per LSEG data cited by Reuters, is trading close to its cheapest earnings multiple since 2015.
• The $150 billion increase outdoes the $110 billion authorization Apple received in 2024, even as US buybacks as a whole dropped about 50% in the July-to-September 23 window.
• The daily chart still holds the rising line drawn from the September 14 low near $209, while the May high at $236.54 stands as the breakout trigger.

With a record $150 billion added to its buyback authorization, taking the amount left to $235 billion, Nvidia's daily chart now serves as a gauge of what that announcement is actually worth. The stock began Monday with an upward gap and gained nearly 2%, Reuters said, but the early strength ran into the same ceiling seen in previous sessions. Nvidia reached $233.21 during trading, a level within the $232-$234 area that also contains the June 2 high, the September 8 high and the September 4 peak at $234.76, before retreating to a $228.86 close.

The Monday candle is a concern, and I won't pretend otherwise. After the surge, the stock settled in the lower portion of its daily range, a sign that sellers were defending resistance. I would not treat that as the whole picture. The uptrend line I have marked off the September 14 low around $209 is still unbroken, though in my view it is too steep to trust. "Steep" is a moveable idea on a time chart, and I could go on about that; changing the zoom changes the angle. A trendline anchored to the late August low is probably the more useful reference.

Dip-buying has been a recurring theme, and the market's reaction to the buyback came from a place of strength, not fragility. The level I am focusing on for a clean breakout is the May 14 peak of $236.54.

The repurchase plan also gives the technical setup a fundamental underpinning. The increase is larger than Apple's $110 billion authorization from 2024 and greater than the market value of roughly 84% of S&P 500 constituents, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters; US share repurchases across the market dropped about 50% in the July-to-September 23 window. Nvidia expects to run the entire program through fiscal 2028. Reuters further noted that the stock is priced at about 16.5 times forward earnings, the lowest such multiple since January 2015, a reading some analysts take as evidence that profit growth expectations are cooling. Nvidia's own filings say buybacks can be halted at the company's discretion, making the authorization an upper limit rather than a guarantee.

For traders, the breakout argument gets stronger once Nvidia can hold a daily close above $234-$236. A drop below $224-$225, followed by a move under the rising trendline, would indicate that Monday's peak represented exhaustion. The focus is also on how fast the company puts the buyback to work and what the next earnings report shows. Touching a breakout level is not the same as being accepted above it, and the next few sessions should reveal which one is happening. Technical levels are reference points rather than certainties, and conditions can shift quickly, so anyone trading or investing should do so at their own risk and apply risk controls that fit their situation.