Oil data: crude draw of 1.892M barrels, surprise gasoline build of 3.870M

For the seven days through October 23:

• Crude oil stocks fell by 1.892 million barrels, versus a projected increase of 0.015 million. The comparable prior reading was −3.060 million.
• Gasoline inventories rose by 3.870 million barrels, compared with the expected decline of 0.942 million. A week earlier the change was −2.952 million.
• Distillate inventories decreased by 1.462 million barrels, against a forecast drop of 0.858 million. The previous week showed +1.675 million.
• Cushing crude inventories were down 0.624 million barrels, following the previous reading of +0.987 million.
• Refinery utilization fell 0.6 percentage points, more than the 0.1 percentage point decline that had been expected. The prior week also showed a 0.1 percentage point drop.

Late yesterday, October 27, the American Petroleum Institute released its own numbers:

• Crude oil: −2.031 million barrels, while an increase of +0.800 million had been expected.
• Gasoline: +2.390 million barrels.
• Distillates: +0.380 million barrels.
• Cushing: −0.453 million barrels.

The latest US petroleum report from the EIA was a mixed one: crude and distillate drawdowns ran ahead of expectations, while gasoline surprised with a sharp build. The government's data put the crude decline at 1.892 million barrels, when only a minimal 15,000-barrel gain was forecast.

The crude result broadly matched the 2.031-million-barrel draw the American Petroleum Institute tallied late yesterday. The EIA's gasoline number, however, came in at +3.870 million barrels, more than the API's build, and official distillate stocks fell after the private survey had implied an increase.

Quick read: The crude and distillate draws may give oil prices some support, though gasoline acts as the biggest offset. Inventories moved up sharply even though refinery utilization declined, casting doubt on the balance of gasoline supply and demand. The report itself gives no decisive steer for Fed policy or the US dollar; for the inflation outlook, sustained energy-price swings are more significant.

Crude oil was trading at $102.29, up $2.40 on the day. It continues to hold above its 100-hour moving average at $100.98. To the upside, the previous session's high was around $102.85, and the day's peak has reached $102.46. Beyond that, a more ambitious buyer objective would be the swing area from $104.46 to $105.21. So long as prices hold above the 100-hour moving average at $100.98, buyers keep the upper hand; the 200-hour moving average at $99.46 is still rising.

What the data track: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report covers US petroleum inventories, refinery activity, production and trade. Market participants watch the weekly stock figures for supply and demand cues; outsize draws usually help prices, while outsize builds usually hurt them.

The API numbers published late yesterday were: