AUDUSD pulls back after CPI-fueled rally, 200-hour MA in focus
AUDUSD fell from a weekly high of 0.7207 after hawkish Fed comments, with the 200-hour moving average now a key support.
Key FX option expiries on August 28 include EUR/USD at 1.1650 and USD/CHF at 0.8000, with focus on Fed Chair Warsh's speech.
A few option expiries are worth noting during today's trading session.
The first expiry is for the EUR/USD pair at the 1.1650 strike. Those expiries are clustered near the intersection of key hourly moving averages, which currently stand at 1.1652-60. This could help keep price movements somewhat anchored ahead of the main event later in the day.
Market focus is squarely on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's keynote address at Jackson Hole. Until that event, traders may show little conviction to make significant moves in the session ahead.
French and Spanish August CPI figures are due for release. However, with traders already pricing in roughly a 95% probability of an ECB move in September, even higher-than-expected inflation data is unlikely to generate much euro strength.
On the downside, the 200-day moving average at 1.1630 should provide support for EUR/USD during European morning trade. Beyond that, the outlook is uncertain heading into the weekend, with the market's response to Warsh's speech set to drive sentiment.
Additionally, there is a USD/CHF expiry at the 0.8000 level. These expiries lack any technical relevance, so they probably won't have much impact, if any. USD/CHF price action is also expected to remain subdued as traders prepare for Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance. Therefore, these expiries are unlikely to significantly affect price movements today.
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