RBA September minutes due Tuesday, jobs data to follow Thursday

Two releases this week will help set expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next interest-rate move: the minutes of its September policy meeting, out Tuesday, and Thursday’s September jobs numbers. Both are due at 11:30 a.m. Sydney time — 00:30 GMT, or 8:30 p.m. ET on the previous evening.

That makes Tuesday the day for the minutes.

At its September gathering, the RBA's Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to 4.60%. The move was unanimous and had been widely anticipated, marking the fourth hike in this tightening cycle. In the board's assessment, inflation remained too high, a product of domestic capacity pressures combined with external shocks from the Middle East conflict and the AI investment surge. The members recognised the economy was decelerating and the labour market softening. Yet they judged that neither was progressing fast enough to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable horizon, especially given fresh upward pressure on oil prices.

CBA anticipates the minutes will show how seriously the board debated keeping the cash rate on hold. It will also watch for any echo of the more dovish tone Governor Michele Bullock used at her press conference, when she noted that the four hikes would take time to work through the economy. The bank sees a higher bar for further tightening. Westpac takes a stronger stance, forecasting another move that would bring the rate to 4.85% by December.

The September rise has already taken a toll on households. Westpac's consumer sentiment gauge dropped 4.7% to 80.4 in October, sitting near the lowest levels the survey has ever recorded.

Turning to the labour market, August delivered an unexpected increase of roughly 40,000 jobs. Even so, unemployment ticked up to 4.6% — the highest since late 2021 — because participation advanced to 67.1%. Westpac's projection matches the consensus: a 20,000 job gain for September, with unemployment holding at 4.6%. CBA is more conservative, seeing only 10,000 new positions while also putting the jobless rate at 4.6%. The bank cautions that sample adjustments may make the coming figure noisier than typical, and it anticipates unemployment gradually moving upward as economic growth cools.

Monday saw the Australian dollar retreat as intensified conflict in the Middle East — including Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia — dampened appetite for risk-sensitive currencies. While geopolitics looks set to stay the primary force, RBA policy remains a key secondary influence. The September rate rise has provided some underpinning to the currency via broader rate spreads, meaning that a dovish tone in the minutes or an uptick in Thursday's unemployment figure would make additional tightening less likely and leave the Aussie more vulnerable. A more hawkish message from the board would offer some support.