Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic drops to five-month low, data shows

The disparity between what the US Navy reports and what independent shipping data reveals is itself a market-moving signal. Based on Kpler's figures, the 10-day average has fallen to just 10 ships daily, the lowest level recorded since May. This suggests genuine supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz regardless of how safe navigation is portrayed, meaning the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices is likely to persist. With Marisks rating risk as extreme for vessels linked to Iran and significantly higher for US-affiliated shipping, insurance premiums and freight charges for any ship using the route are expected to remain elevated. This adds upward pressure on the cost of delivered crude even without accounting for the volume of traffic that has been lost. A refined products tanker was also forced to turn back while trying to exit the waterway, compounding the supply squeeze on top of the crude disruption.

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Independent vessel-tracking data indicate Hormuz traffic has hit its lowest point since May, a finding that diverges from the US Navy's reported increase in tanker escort operations.

Summary:

• A 10-day moving average compiled by Kpler shows 10 cargo vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz each day, the fewest since May
• The US Navy has stated it is escorting a substantially higher number of ships through the waterway, a claim the traffic data appears to contradict
• US forces attacked three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted US warships in the region
• The IRGC navy said it responded by hitting three tankers on non-standard routes as well as three more US vessels in other locations
• Maritime security firm Marisks described Saturday's strikes as a significant escalation, classifying risk as extreme for Iran-linked shipping and substantially higher for US-connected vessels
• UKMTO's weekly bulletin recorded 27 projectile attacks since 6 July that have damaged ships in and near the strait

According to Reuters, vessel traffic through Hormuz has dropped to its lowest point since May, despite the US Navy reporting that it has been shepherding a significantly larger number of ships through the channel. Kpler's 10-day moving average recorded just 10 cargo vessels passing through per day, a decline from over 15 on Friday and close to 13 on Saturday. Only two ships transited on Saturday and six on Sunday, with most using the Iranian lane.

The downturn followed a sharp increase in hostilities over the weekend. On Saturday, US forces hit three Iranian oil tankers, one of them off Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal, after the IRGC launched attacks against US naval vessels in the area. The IRGC navy said it retaliated by striking three tankers on unauthorised courses within the strait, along with three additional US vessels elsewhere. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks identified the three Iranian tankers as Downy, Stark I and Kylo, also referred to as Noxen.

Marisks assessed the Saturday assaults as a serious escalation in the maritime conflict, cautioning that commercial tankers are increasingly being used as tools of mutual economic coercion, blurring the boundary between military operations and merchant shipping. The firm judged risk to be extreme for Iranian or Iran-linked vessels, and substantially higher for US-linked or US-escorted shipping across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. That risk assessment sits uncomfortably alongside the Navy's own portrayal of its escort efforts.

The disruption is not confined to crude. LSEG data show a tanker carrying refined products that had loaded at a Saudi port was prevented from exiting the strait. Kpler data also indicate no very large crude carrier has departed since Wednesday. On Sunday, one VLCC and three bulk carriers transporting metals, grains or oilseeds entered the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported 27 projectile incidents since 6 July, all of which caused damage to vessels operating in and around Hormuz.

It remains unclear from available data whether the Navy's escort assertions and the actual traffic numbers can be reconciled. Readers should treat the two narratives as separate, unverified statements until further confirmation emerges.