Gold holds steady as strong jobs data keeps September rate hike in play

Gold's recent slide masks a genuinely balanced picture as markets brace for this week's inflation figures. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report has kept the possibility of a September rate increase alive, a factor that usually pressures non-yielding bullion due to the higher opportunity cost of holding it. Yet gold has held steady rather than falling further, suggesting the market views this week's CPI and PPI releases as the more decisive factor. For AUD-linked exposure, Perth Mint's own August sales slowdown, even after a double-digit monthly price gain, points to some retail demand fatigue locally even as global investment flows remained strong enough to drive that gain, a divergence worth monitoring if the inflation data moves gold sharply in either direction this week.

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Gold is treading water ahead of this week's inflation data, even as Perth Mint reports its own gold and silver sales cooled through August despite a strong month for prices.

• Gold is trading little changed on Monday as markets await key US inflation data due later this week for clues on the Fed's rate path
• Friday's data showed US job growth accelerated sharply in August while unemployment held at 4.1%, and gold slipped after the report
• Traders are pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's 15-16 September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool
• US CPI and PPI reports are due this week
• President Trump said Friday he would stop trading with deficit countries unless the Fed cuts rates
• Perth Mint's August gold sales fell to a three-month low and silver sales dropped more than 31% from July, even as spot gold rose around 10% and silver climbed more than 15% over the month

Gold is trading slightly lower on Monday as markets await key US inflation data due later this week for more signs on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Friday's figures showed US job growth picked up sharply in August while the unemployment rate stayed steady at around 4.1%, pointing to an improvement in the labour market after recent struggles and keeping a rate increase this month firmly on the table. Gold slipped after the report but has since stabilised.

Traders are pricing in around a 60% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's 15-16 September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. While gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the appeal of non-yielding bullion, and US consumer and producer inflation reports due this week are likely to be the more decisive input for how that calculation shifts. Adding a further twist, President Donald Trump said on Friday that unless the Fed cuts interest rates, he would stop trading with countries where the United States runs a deficit.

Beyond the macro picture, Perth Mint reported that its gold product sales reached a three-month low in August, while silver sales fell more than 31% from July. Sales of gold coins and minted bars totalled around 24,000 ounces, down roughly 22% from July and close to 21% lower than a year earlier. Silver sales fell to around 334,000 ounces, down from about 486,000 ounces in July and more than 21% lower year-on-year.

Neil Vance, Perth Mint's general manager for distributors and product development, said new silver releases performed strongly during the month, with the 10kg silver bullion horse proving popular with customers and a large share of the Brumby mintage also selling. The sales slowdown came despite a strong month for prices, with spot gold posting a monthly gain of around 10% in August while silver rose more than 15%, underscoring a gap between investment demand driving prices higher and softer physical retail demand at the mint level. Perth Mint, owned by the government of Western Australia, is the world's leading producer of newly mined gold and Australia's largest refiner by volume.