Tehran Escalates Hormuz Attacks to Prop Up Oil Prices Ahead of US Midterms

Two Iranian officials have told Reuters that Tehran is stepping up attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent oil prices from falling ahead of the US midterm elections. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently trading around $95.

However, that strategy faces difficulties: WTI has fallen 10.5% over the past 30 days. At the same time, a US military official stated that Iran has not succeeded in halting the increase in oil exports.

Why Do More Hormuz Attacks Mean Higher Oil Prices?

According to maritime data referenced by Reuters, there were at least five incidents involving commercial vessels over a two-day period, including drone attacks.

Iran additionally intends to expand its operations into the Gulf of Oman. Events near Qatar and the United Arab Emirates indicate this expansion may already underway.

Such attacks increase shipping and insurance expenses and complicate any return to normal traffic.

A JPMorgan tanker shortage note says Middle Eastern crude needs 35 more supertankers than the 2025 average, excluding Iranian cargoes.

A second official described aim.

“Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we push them away from it.”

Iran official, Reuters

WTI would need to rise by roughly 5.7% hit $100, while Brent crude is trading around $106.

Can Trump Pull Oil Down Before November 3?

Trump has said he will not strike Iran again before November 3 vote, which will decide control of Congress.

In meantime, US continues enforce naval blockade on Iranian ports and is expanding sanctions.

Earlier in October, leaders of Group Seven (G7) agreed to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. WTI around $90 on October 5 now trading near $95.

A September Fox News poll reported by AP showed that 61% voters consider gas prices significant household issue, up from 48% two years earlier.

On October 5, Trump claimed that Strait of Hormuz no longer influences US gasoline prices, a statement that BeInCrypto analyzed.

Before conflict, about one-fifth of world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transited strait. Iranian officials now assert that they are employing this leverage influence US election.