USD climbs across the board as yields rise in early September trade

The US dollar is gaining ground against every major currency as September trading begins. US yields are edging higher, crude oil continues to rally, while gold and silver are declining. The morning Kickstart segment analyzes technical levels for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, highlighting thresholds that define direction, risk and upcoming targets.

The dollar’s advances versus the major currencies are:

• EUR: +0.19%

• JPY: +0.21%

• GBP: +0.09%

• CHF: +0.22%

• CAD: +0.17%

• AUD: +0.28%

• NZD: +0.30%

The greenback is the best performer among major currencies, while the New Zealand dollar is the laggard. Sterling is holding up relatively well against the dollar.

The daily trading ranges from low to high are:

• EURUSD: 1.1589 to 1.1624 — 35 pips.

• USDJPY: 159.65 to 160.14 — 49 pips.

• GBPUSD: 1.3530 to 1.3559 — 29 pips.

• USDCHF: 0.8079 to 0.8108 — 29 pips.

• USDCAD: 1.3846 to 1.3882 — 36 pips.

• AUDUSD: 0.7140 to 0.7180 — 40 pips.

• NZDUSD: 0.5893 to 0.5928 — 35 pips.

In the US bond market, yields are rising across maturities beyond the two-year note, adding to pressure on longer-dated debt after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on Friday. Markets still see roughly a 65% probability of a rate increase in September.

• 2-year yield: 4.348%, down 0.2 basis points.

• 5-year yield: 4.5214%, up 1.44 basis points.

• 10-year yield: 4.780%, up 2.2 basis points.

• 30-year yield: 5.2719%, up 2.29 basis points.

On the economic data side, euro area preliminary inflation picked up to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, in line with forecasts. Energy continues to be the main driver, with annual energy inflation surging to 14.3% from 10.3%.

Beneath the headline figure, there were some encouraging signs. Core inflation eased to 2.4%, below both the 2.5% estimate and the prior month, while services inflation slowed to 3.0% from 3.3%. This leaves the ECB weighing higher energy costs against some cooling in underlying price pressures. The data keeps a September rate hike on the table, but the softer core reading gives policymakers room for caution about subsequent moves.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Asheville, North Carolina, with the meetings concluding today. For forex markets, the key discussion points are Japan, interest rates and Iran.

Bessent stated he expects Japan to take measures that would result in a stronger yen, fueling expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate increase. US and Japanese officials also reaffirmed their commitment to coordinating on currency policy. However, Bessent described recent yen movements as relatively modest, stopping short of signaling an immediate need for fresh intervention.

This creates opposing forces for the USDJPY. Anticipation of higher Japanese rates could boost the yen, but rising US yields are supporting the dollar. Currently, the USDJPY is around 160.06, up 0.21% on the day.

Bessent also noted yesterday that the Fed traditionally does not raise rates during a supply shock unless it feeds into broader inflation. That provides a case for staying put despite higher oil prices, though the decision rests with Warsh and the full FOMC.

On trade, Politico reported that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated Canada could face additional tariffs, along with import bans or restrictions similar to measures Canada previously placed on the US. Greer said he would prefer to leave energy untouched and added that no trade talks are currently happening. These remarks add another layer of uncertainty for the Canadian dollar, with USDCAD rising despite higher oil prices.

Bessent is also advocating for tighter sanctions on Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. For markets, the key focus is oil and the risk that prolonged disruption keeps inflation elevated and complicates the outlook for central banks.

US stock futures point to a lower open, with the Nasdaq the weakest performer. Higher US Treasury yields also imply higher borrowing costs for AI companies looking to take on debt to finance growth:

• Dow -348 points
• S&P -52 points
• Nasdaq 351 points

Across commodities and crypto:

• Crude oil: Up $1.77, or 2.08%, at $87.57.

• Gold: Down $63.16, or 1.42%, at $4,384.38.

• Silver: Down 2.21% at $65.02.

• Bitcoin: Down $838 at $78,129.

With the dollar rising and yields mostly climbing, can dollar buyers extend those gains? The video examines the key levels for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, and what buyers need to do to maintain control.