USDCAD bulls renew their push, but the 100-day MA still stands in the way

USDCAD moved higher through September, but buying ran into resistance in early October. Three highs recorded between October 5 and October 14 stopped around 1.4291–1.4298. Buyers had openings to stretch the uptrend further. The level held each time.

Once the breakout failed, sellers were handed the advantage, and the drop that followed was fast and one-directional. The slide extended through October 23, when the price bottomed at 1.3968.

The low came to rest just above an important swing area stretching from 1.3948 to 1.3963. The 61.8% retracement at 1.3948 gives the support zone extra technical weight. Sellers recouped a big share of the September rally but stopped short of the next downside objective.

Yesterday's push above the 100-day MA came up short.

The rebound off last week's low lifted the pair above its 100-day moving average, now at 1.40447, in yesterday's trading. That advance was not sustained. Buying momentum faded and the exchange rate rotated back down.

The rejection is significant. Clearing a major moving average is only the first step. Holding it is what convinces traders that control is shifting.

Buyers were unable to finish that second step yesterday.

Buyers are now trying again from a compact range.

During today's action, the pair first stayed mostly below its 100-hour moving average at 1.4018. Since then, buying has stretched the tight range upward, taking the price back above that average and away from the 50% midpoint at 1.40149.

That hands buyers a short-term foothold. The 1.40149–1.4018 band now serves as nearby support, a zone where traders expecting the rebound to continue can define their risk.

While the band is defended, buyers can keep making higher attempts. Slipping back below it would leave the recent upside push without its technical justification.

The next tests are the 100-day and 200-hour moving averages.

Whether the pair can climb back above the 100-day MA at 1.40447 and then hold it is the immediate issue.

A sustained climb would strengthen buyer confidence and shift the focus to the falling 200-hour MA at 1.40678. Pushing through that average would clear yet another barrier and reinforce the bullish comeback.

Until those levels give way, the recovery still has more to prove. Sellers have technical markers they can use as reference points and risk levels.

If support gives way, sellers would be back in firm control.

Should the price stall below the moving averages overhead and turn back under 1.4018 and 1.40149, the sellers would take charge once more.

That scenario would put the October 23 low at 1.3968 back in play, followed by the more significant 1.3948–1.3963 swing area. A slide below that zone, and through the 61.8% retracement, would clear the way for another push lower.

For the moment, buyers are making their move. Defending 1.40149–1.4018 keeps that move viable. A push above 1.40447, with a hold, and then 1.40678, would make the bullish case more credible.