Cowen Puts 65% Odds on Further Bitcoin Bear Market, Eyes $53K
Benjamin Cowen sees a 65% chance Bitcoin's cycle low is still ahead, watching the $53,000 realized price level.
XRP's chart resembles the 2024 pattern that led to a 650% jump, with on-chain data showing high volume and shrinking exchange reserves.
The chart structure of XRP is catching renewed notice because it closely resembles a formation from 2024 that preceded a sharp upward move.
The current configuration matches the sequence that came before that previous 650% jump, according to analysts monitoring the altcoin.
As of this writing, XRP is trading around $1.40, having gained about 35% over the past month. The token remains far below its 2025 high around $3.65 but has recovered from values under $1.00 seen earlier in the summer.
Analysts point out that XRP has replayed the identical pattern seen in 2024 right before that surge. The cryptocurrency is tracing a sequence that moves from the $1.10 to $1.00 area through subsequent price targets of $1.30, $1.90, $2.80, and $3.40.
The analysis presents this as a possible path, not a certainty.
Other optimistic forecasts use Fibonacci levels. According to trader CW8900, the most recent correction found a bottom near the 0.5 retracement, and the price has subsequently moved past the 0.618 level. The next extension target is around $2.13 at the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Additional context comes from on-chain data:
Analysts see the withdrawal as a bullish indicator over the long term, aligning with accumulation in self-custody or demand from spot ETF products introduced in late 2025.
This trend is considered more significant for long-term timeframes than for short-term price movement.
Not all analysts share this optimism. A more cautious perspective characterizes XRP as still being in a corrective pullback inside the $1.10 to $1.38 support area.
The mix of a recurring technical pattern, high spot volume, falling exchange reserves, and conflicting short-term signals results in a truly debated situation.
Identifying historical patterns can suggest potential movements, but market conditions, overall cryptocurrency sentiment, and macroeconomic forces still determine the final results.
Whether the 2024-like sequence repeats depends on continued buying pressure and XRP's capacity to maintain important price levels over the coming weeks.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
Benjamin Cowen sees a 65% chance Bitcoin's cycle low is still ahead, watching the $53,000 realized price level.
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