Brandt's Biggest FX Bet Is Short EUR/JPY as Yen Strengthens
Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
The Japanese yen surged for a second straight day, with USD/JPY falling nearly 300 pips. WTI crude and gold also gained, while bond yields eased.
Today's market highlights:
The Japanese yen is without question the biggest mover today. USD/JPY opened near 159.00 in early Asian trading but has since dropped by almost 300 pips, touching a low of 155.85 earlier in the session. The pair has moved in a single direction throughout the day after sliding below the 158.00 level.
Japan's chief currency official, Mimura, did not comment on whether a rate check occurred, but such a check appears to have taken place either overnight or earlier today. Market participants are clearly taking the warning seriously, and may already be experiencing some impact from a modest intervention by Tokyo. This is pushing USD/JPY lower by 1.6% to 156.10 at present.
Meanwhile, ongoing US-Iran tensions are still supporting oil prices. WTI crude has risen more than 2% to $93, while Brent crude is up 1.5% to above $97 today.
Even so, bond yields continue to ease from their overnight highs. This is providing some relief to broader markets ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report due tomorrow.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is 2 bps lower at 4.774%, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has also fallen back to 2.97% today. In Europe, Germany's 10-year yield is slightly lower at 3.35%, while France's stands at 4.22%. This appears to be a retracement for now, so market sentiment remains cautious.
This cautious mood is mirrored in equities, as US futures remain subdued ahead of the open. European stock indices are showing a mixed performance so far today.
Elsewhere, gold is staging a modest rebound, rising 1.3% to $4,443. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is also slightly higher, up 0.6% at $77,897 today.
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Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
The PBOC is expected to announce its daily USD/CNY midpoint around 0115 GMT, with Reuters estimating it at 6.6758.
MUFG expects the ECB to hold next week and deliver two more hikes through Q1 2027. It sees EUR/USD at 1.12 by year-end.
Stock futures point to sharp losses, oil nears $100, and Treasury yields fall amid renewed Iran strike fears. Earnings beats fail to lift some shares.