BOJ rate hike likely, yen rally at risk
BOJ expected to hike rates next week, but yen rally may be limited if Ueda signals caution.
AUDUSD tests and bounces from 200-hour MA at 0.7157, increasing its importance.
The AUDUSD is trading roughly unchanged on the day, but the technical setup is building toward a significant turning point for traders.
The pair fell sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered more hawkish comments at Jackson Hole. A corrective move higher on Monday ran out of steam, pushing the price back toward its rising 200-hour moving average at 0.7157.
That moving average acts as a vital reference for both buyers and sellers.
The 200-hour moving average has offered support multiple times during the recent rally. While the price holds above it, buyers keep a slight technical edge. A break below it, with sustained trading beneath, would be a fresh development and shift the bias more decisively toward the downside.
On a lower break, the first targets are near the 0.7128 swing area, then the 38.2% retracement at 0.7098.
If buyers continue to defend the 200-hour moving average, they must push the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 0.7176 to regain stronger control. Above there, the focus turns to the 0.7194–0.7201 resistance zone and the August high of 0.7207.
For now, the 200-hour moving average at 0.7157 sets the terms. Stay above and buyers still matter. Move below and sellers would take firmer control.
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