EURUSD rebounds from support, faces key moving averages

The euro-dollar pair declined sharply at the end of the previous week, and selling persisted at the start of the new trading week during the Asian-Pacific session. The low found a floor near 1.15733, where the 100-day moving average converged with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the late-July low. Buyers stepped in at that critical support zone and drove the price higher.

The recovery has pushed the pair into a swing region between 1.1613 and 1.16215. If the price clears that zone, buyers would then target another important resistance cluster:

• 200-day moving average at 1.16305
• 100-hour moving average at 1.16359
• 200-hour moving average at 1.16558

From a technical standpoint, sellers from Friday still have a chance to keep control. They need to hold the price below the 200-day moving average at 1.16305. A break above that level would disappoint sellers and tilt the short-term bias more toward buyers, giving traders more confidence to push through the other upside levels.

On the fundamental side, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contributed to the rebound by stating that the Fed typically does not raise interest rates in response to inflation caused by supply shocks. With higher oil prices representing a supply shock, his remarks took some of the edge off expectations for tighter Fed policy.