BOJ rate hike likely, yen rally at risk
BOJ expected to hike rates next week, but yen rally may be limited if Ueda signals caution.
Bessent met BOJ's Ueda and Japan's Katayama at G20, urged rate hikes. Yen strengthened on the remarks.
The yen gained ground after Bessent's remarks, strengthening the view that markets already see a September BOJ rate increase as almost fully priced in. His statements add weight to the argument that policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan could narrow through Japanese action rather than solely via Fed easing. With USDJPY hovering near 160—a threshold that has previously prompted joint US-Japan intervention—Bessent's language provides rhetorical backing for the currency without signaling fresh intervention appetite, as he explicitly stated he does not consider recent yen moves disorderly. That nuance matters for foreign exchange desks: verbal support without an intervention threat tends to have a shorter shelf life than coordinated action, so how long any yen bid lasts will likely depend on the BOJ actually delivering in September, not on today's comments alone. A September hike rather than an October one could also spark speculation that the central bank is moving to a quarterly hiking rhythm, which would be a more structurally supportive shift for the yen than a one-off move.
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Bessent says Japan will act to support the yen, and the market now almost fully prices in a BOJ rate hike in September to achieve that.
Summary:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes Japan's government and central bank will take action leading to a stronger yen, signalling a strong chance the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in September, CNBC reported on Monday.
"I have information that the market doesn't have, and it's my belief that the Japanese government and the BOJ will do the things that will lead to a stronger yen," Bessent said in the interview, conducted during a Group of 20 finance leaders' gathering in Asheville, North Carolina. Asked directly whether that meant raising interest rates, Bessent replied, "I think the market's pricing that in now." The remarks followed comments Bessent made to Reuters on Sunday, in which he said he expected BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to "do the right thing" on monetary policy to combat the yen's decline.
The yen strengthened against the dollar following Bessent's comments, reinforcing dominant market expectations that the BOJ will raise rates at its next policy meeting. The dollar was last at 159.75 yen, still close to the 160 level that has previously been seen as increasing the likelihood of yen buying intervention from Japanese authorities. A senior US Treasury Department official told Japanese public broadcaster NHK that Bessent met with Ueda on Sunday and with Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Monday, with Erin Browne, undersecretary for international affairs at Treasury, quoted as saying Bessent called for further rate hikes and for Japan to more clearly demonstrate how it plans to achieve fiscal sustainability. Reuters said it could not independently confirm the meetings took place.
Sources have previously told Reuters that the BOJ is positioned to raise rates as soon as its September 17 to 18 meeting, and is weighing a more aggressive hiking pace than its recent practice of roughly two increases a year. Bessent's repeated public calls for BOJ tightening have been cited as one of the factors pushing markets to nearly fully price in a September hike. The BOJ last raised rates in June, and analysts have said a hike delivered in September, rather than being pushed to October, could fuel expectations the central bank shifts to a quarterly hiking cadence going forward.
A persistently weak yen has driven up Japanese import costs and broader inflation, a dynamic partly attributed to the BOJ's comparatively slow pace of tightening, which has kept the interest rate gap with the US wide. Japan and the US carried out a rare joint yen buying intervention on July 31 in an effort to prevent a selloff in the yen and Japanese government bonds from spilling into global markets, though that action failed to put a sustained floor under the currency. Bessent told Reuters he did not view the yen's recent moves as disorderly, a comment that suggests Washington currently has little appetite to join Tokyo in another round of direct market intervention, leaving the BOJ's own policy decision as the more likely lever for any further yen support.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda
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