AUDUSD recovers from weekly lows, faces key 200-hour MA test

The AUDUSD is approaching its previously breached 200-hour moving average, establishing a critical juncture for both bulls and bears.

Since crossing above that moving average on July 30, the pair has largely relied on it as a support level. Although there have been several probes and occasional breaks below, buyers have typically managed to defend the line.

On Tuesday, buyers stepped in at the moving average and drove prices higher into the session's close. That upward move continued during the Asian session, with the pair testing its 100-hour moving average. But sellers pushed back at that level, regaining control and pushing the price under the 200-hour moving average, paving the way for a steeper drop.

The sell-off paused near 0.7139, matching the lows seen on the previous Monday and Tuesday. Buyers held that floor and have since lifted the price back toward 0.7158. The bounce refocuses attention on the 200-hour moving average, now at 0.71635.

Can sellers convert the former support into resistance?

Sellers now have a chance to press against the 200-hour moving average. A move back above it would suggest their breakdown is losing steam. Staying below keeps the bearish bias alive, with another test of 0.7139 as the next target. A break under that level would open the door for a deeper pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the late-July low at 0.7098.

For buyers, holding last week's lows was a crucial first step. But they still need to retake the 200-hour moving average at 0.71635 and then the 100-hour moving average at 0.7174. Clearing both would tilt the technical landscape back in their favor and put last week's high near 0.7207 back into play.

Buyers held the floor. Sellers broke through the moving-average support. The next test of the 200-hour moving average will reveal which side holds the upper hand.