AUDUSD slides to lowest point since early July

The AUDUSD extended its downward trajectory, as sellers drove the currency from one support zone to another. Since September 23, the pair has stayed under its declining 100-hour moving average, reinforcing the negative outlook. Despite occasional attempts by buyers to lift the price, they failed to alter the bearish technical picture.

Sellers pushed through successive downside targets.

This week's decline began on Monday and Tuesday as the 100-hour moving average was challenged but encountered active sellers. On Tuesday, the price reached a peak close to that average, the 200-day MA, and the upper boundary of a swing zone between 0.70203 and 0.70269. Sellers then drove it lower.

On the following day, sellers pushed beneath the subsequent zone spanning 0.69619 to 0.69778, clearing the path for further declines.

That move carried the pair on the current day into a lower swing zone at 0.69056–0.69205. Buyers discovered support close to the lower end of that range, prompting a bounce to around 0.6931.

Now that buyers have stepped in at support, they must capitalize on that move.

What scenario would restore buyer dominance?

Defending the 0.69056–0.69205 zone is an initial step. But the first significant barrier that would boost buyer confidence that a low has formed would be a climb above 0.69619–0.69778. That level previously acted as support. It now serves as resistance, giving sellers a point to sell from and manage their exposure.

Recovering that zone would provide buyers with some space. Beyond it, the declining 100-hour moving average continues to be a crucial indicator. Ultimately, buyers must rise above and hold above that average to demonstrate they can halt the downward trend.

Sellers maintain dominance until those obstacles are overcome.

What factors keep the bearish momentum alive?

A drop back under 0.69205 would bring the price within the lower swing zone again. A further fall below 0.69056 would hand sellers another technical win and pave the way to the chart's bottom at 0.68655.

The takeaway for traders is clear: a rebound from a downward target alone does not shift the trend. It indicates that buyers acted at a support level. Recapturing former resistance—and ultimately the 100-hour moving average—would signal they are regaining command.

At present, the downtrend persists. The swing zones offer a guide, and the moving average assists in defining the outlook and risk.