Dollar slides: USDJPY and USDCHF weaken, USDCAD probes trendline

A bout of dollar softness has hit the USDJPY and USDCHF, with each pair slipping beneath key hourly moving averages. That action has shifted the near-term lean further in favour of sellers, though more effort remains to extend the downward pressure.

USDCAD is still in positive territory for the session, yet the pullback from the latest peak has put an upward-sloping trendline back into view. The prior session's move below that line did not hold. Will a second try by sellers succeed?

USDJPY: Sellers find an opening under the hourly moving averages

For the USDJPY, resistance emerged around 158.46, where the 200-day moving average meets the 50% midpoint of the drop from the July 2026 peak. That pairing presented a distinct barrier overhead. Buyers failed to break past it, and the pair turned down.

The subsequent fall carried the pair under the 157.90–158.04 swing zone, then through the 200-hour moving average at 157.655 and the 100-hour MA at 157.416. The drop stretched to a fresh intraday low of 157.35.

Since then, the price has rebounded to sit between those two hourly averages. That places market participants at a critical juncture.

With the price between the averages, a degree of balance has returned. The bears must now cap any bounce beneath the 200-hour MA, then drive the price below the 100-hour MA to reassert their grip.

A decisive break under both would bring the 38.2% retracement at 157.136 into play. Beyond that, the next downside targets would be the prior swing lows in the 156.36–156.655 region.

On the flip side, climbing back above both hourly MAs would undermine the bearish narrative and redirect focus to 157.90–158.04. To do so, buyers would first have to retake that swing zone before any return to the resistance at 158.46.

Important technical levels:

• 158.46 marks the meeting point of the 200-day MA and the 50% retracement.

• 157.90–158.04 is the swing-area resistance zone.

• 157.655 represents the 200-hour moving average.

• 157.416 is the 100-hour moving average.

• 157.35 stands as the session low.

• 157.136 corresponds to the 38.2% retracement.

• 156.36–156.655 defines the lower swing support area.

USDCHF: A six-day climb hits a technical barrier

The USDCHF has posted gains for six straight sessions, and earlier in the day it appeared set to add another. Buyers drove the pair to 0.8382, but upward momentum faded and the price swung back toward the rising 100-hour MA at 0.8328.

The latest hourly candle saw the price slip under that average. The break converted buyers into sellers, and the downward move worsened.

This is significant, as the 100-hour MA provides a concrete gauge for any bounce. As long as the price remains below 0.8328, the bears keep the near-term edge. If the pair climbs back above and holds, the downside break becomes less convincing.

Downside support is next seen around 0.8282, the level where the 200-hour MA and an upward trendline intersect. That convergence makes the zone a pivotal battleground for bulls and bears alike.

Bulls might use that support as a foothold, placing their risk beneath it. But a decisive and sustained drop below would reinforce the bearish stance and may accelerate the decline.

Important technical levels:

• 0.8382 is today's high.

• 0.8328 is the broken 100-hour MA, now acting as resistance on any rebound.

• 0.8282 is the 200-hour MA with rising trendline support.

USDCAD: Buyers retain control even as breakout momentum fades

USDCAD remains up on the day, yet the price has turned toward a rising trendline around 1.4234.

This trendline also featured in the previous session. Sellers pushed under it and carried the drop through the ascending 100-hour MA. That push lacked durability, however, as the price rebounded sharply and settled back above the trendline, restoring bull dominance.

The sellers made their attempt, but it came up short.

On the current session, buyers pushed beyond the June peak of 1.4247 to hit 1.4258, the highest price since April 2025. That move lacked conviction, though, with only modest upside continuation before the pair turned down.

While that doesn't shift leadership to the bears, it elevates the importance of the trendline probe. As long as 1.4234 holds, the bullish setup remains intact, and buyers must clear 1.4247 and 1.4258 once more to prolong the advance.

A drop beneath the trendline would hand sellers another chance. To gain conviction in a larger pullback, they would then have to sustain the price under that line. Should they succeed, the next major support to watch would be the ascending 100-hour MA at 1.41877.

Important technical levels:

• 1.4258 is today's high.

• 1.4247 is the June high and the breakout level.

• 1.4234 is the rising trendline support.

• 1.41877 is the rising 100-hour moving average.

Education: A break offers a signal, but holding beyond it delivers confirmation.

A penetration of a moving average or trendline offers an early hint that control could be shifting. The subsequent price action determines whether that hint merits greater trust.

The USDCAD action from the prior day illustrates the point. Sellers pierced support, but the price bounced back quickly. That break didn't hold, and bulls recaptured command.

The same principle now applies to USDJPY and USDCHF. Bears have fashioned a window by slipping under critical MAs. Their task now is to maintain price below those marks and push toward the next objectives.

These levels not only outline the prevailing bias but also signal when that bias has lost its validity.