Bitcoin's four-hour chart shows a potential rounded-top pattern with a downside target near $71,000 if $76,000 support breaks.
Essential takeaways
If the potential rounded-top formation on the four-hour chart is confirmed by a close below $76,000, Bitcoin might fall towards $71,000.
From around $63,000 in mid-August, BTC climbed to the $80,000–$81,500 zone.
Bullish force has faded since then, and the price has been slowly bending downwards, creating the dome shape that characterizes a rounded top.
The bearish risk is increased by weak spot-market demand, although demand for Bitcoin perpetual futures stays positive.
The potential rounded top in Bitcoin formed after its robust rebound from the August lows.
On Monday, September 15, Bitcoin traded around $76,870, staying above a key support zone of $76,000–$76,300. That zone essentially serves as the neckline of the bearish pattern.
A firm four-hour candle close beneath that area would confirm the formation and raise the likelihood of a steeper pullback.
About $5,000 to $5,300 separates the pattern's top from its neckline. Taking that range away from a potential breakdown around $76,000 yields a target of $70,900–$71,000.
The four-hour Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin was around 54.5, indicating mostly neutral momentum, not extreme overbought or oversold levels.
Bitcoin was also near its 20-, 50-, and 100-period exponential moving averages. This clustering shows the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.
If Bitcoin stays above $79,500–$80,000, the rounded-top scenario would lose strength. A move above the recent highs around $81,500 would mostly cancel the bearish pattern and revive the case for upside. For now, $76,000 is the key support to watch.
The underlying demand picture for Bitcoin offers little backing for a bullish view. According to CryptoQuant's 30-day demand-growth data, perpetual futures demand stayed positive in September. Spot demand, though, remained negative.
Therefore, overall Bitcoin demand stayed under zero even as derivatives traders remained active.
This divergence implies that leveraged futures positions are behind much of the recent buying, not investors directly buying BTC on the spot market.
An advance powered mainly by derivatives tends to be more fragile than one backed by robust spot purchases.
Futures demand can vanish rapidly when traders unwind leveraged bets or suffer liquidations in a downturn. That could speed up selling and boost volatility if Bitcoin drops below a major support.
A somewhat comparable divergence occurred in January and February 2026, when futures demand saw a short-lived recovery before total demand and Bitcoin's price turned lower.
The present setup does not guarantee the same outcome. But if spot demand does not recover, a confirmed decline below $76,000 would make the rounded-top target near $71,000 more pertinent.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
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