Brent at $109 as US, Israel Draft Post-Midterm Iran Strike Plans

The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have drawn up plans to strike Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. According to Investing.com data, energy infrastructure is on the target list, and Brent crude is already trading close to $109 a barrel.

However, US President Donald Trump called off an attack just before it was launched this month and has put previous plans aside. According to some officials, oil facilities might be avoided because Trump wants to prevent increases at the pump.

Could Brent See Another February-Style Surge?

After the US and Israel started the Iran war on Feb. 28, Brent crude increased by 27.9% within a week. Data now shows Brent is nearly 50% above its close before the war.

On July 8, when US strikes restarted after a truce, Brent closed 5.2% higher. But according to NBC News, the oil price increase on Oct. 8 mostly held despite Trump's promise not to attack before the election.

Oil prices and bond yields have also been moving in tandem. Their correlation reached its highest point since the 1990s.

Is Washington Able to Shield Oil From the Conflict?

The plans for Iran's nuclear program may involve striking Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear facility embedded in granite. Tehran analyst Peiman Salehi told the Times that Iran's retaliation would target Saudi refineries. He described oil prices as Tehran's strongest leverage against Trump.

U.S. AND ISRAEL REPORTEDLY PLAN NEW IRAN STRIKES AFTER MIDTERMS

The U.S. and Israel have reportedly developed plans for renewed attacks on Iran after the November 3 elections, according to the New York Times.

Potential targets include energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 21, 2026

Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran's negotiator, described a 72-hour US campaign as unrealistic.

According to the New York Times, the complete US military buildup, which includes three aircraft carriers, will not be complete until early November. Meanwhile, Israel holds elections on Oct. 27. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses, he will become a caretaker leader, a status that experts believe restricts his ability to start a war.

US officials informed the Wall Street Journal in September that Trump intends to resume bombing after the election. Nate Silver's model indicates a 94% probability that Democrats will gain control of the House. Trump, however, has claimed that many polls are rigged.

In the week ending Oct. 18, Gulf exports exceeded pre-war levels. Nevertheless, Brent crude is trading around $109, a price point that new attacks might challenge.