Dogecoin recovery nears $0.0806 breakout test as ETF demand stays weak

Key takeaways

• Dogecoin (DOGE) changed hands near $0.0770 on Thursday, extending a recovery that has run for two straight sessions.
• Dogecoin ETFs have taken in no new money since October 14, a sign of muted institutional appetite.
• DOGE has regained its four-hour 50-period EMA at $0.0762 and is moving toward descending trendline resistance at $0.0786.

Dogecoin (DOGE) traded around $0.0770 on Thursday, with gains stretching to a second straight session and hinting at the start of a bullish comeback.

The meme coin remained above $0.0770, adding to a previous-session rebound that exceeded 2%.

So far, the upturn has not drawn significant involvement from institutional players or leveraged traders.

CoinGlass data indicates that Dogecoin futures open interest has eased since Monday, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the meme coin have not taken in any new money since October 14.

Even with those soft demand signals, DOGE's four-hour technical picture is firming up. The token has moved back above a key short-term moving average and is heading toward a descending resistance trendline around $0.0786.

If that level gives way, bullish momentum could build and bring the $0.0806 resistance area into view.

Dogecoin futures open interest falls while price recovers

The latest advance in Dogecoin's price has not come with any rise in futures-market activity.

CoinGlass puts DOGE futures open interest at $1.06 billion on Thursday, down from $1.18 billion on Monday.

That gap between price and positioning suggests the rebound has yet to build enough conviction to spur new leveraged bets.

It could also mean some traders are unwinding positions instead of adding capital during the rebound.

Falling open interest, however, is not automatically bearish. When short sellers cover, a drop in open interest can accompany higher prices.

Institutional appetite for Dogecoin is still muted. According to SoSoValue data, Dogecoin-focused ETFs have yet to take in any new money since October 14.

That dry spell has now lasted a third straight week, pointing to restrained demand for these vehicles.

For DOGE, the absence of ETF inflows stands in contrast to its strengthening short-term price action.

DOGE's bounce arrives as the wider crypto market tries to claw back ground after a stretch of elevated volatility.

Sentiment has been brightening since the US midterm elections, which gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.

Those political outcomes have helped shift expectations around US economic and digital-asset policy.

What the developments mean directly for crypto regulation is still unclear. For speculative coins like Dogecoin, overall market confidence can matter a great deal.

DOGE moves back above key average on four-hour chart

Dogecoin's technical setup has turned more constructive after the coin climbed back above its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour timeframe.

The token is changing hands near $0.0772, staying above the 50-period EMA at roughly $0.0762.

Because it places more weight on recent prices, the EMA is a common tool for gauging short-term market direction.

Dogecoin has still not cleared the most significant near-term resistance. A descending trendline drawn from the highs of October 8 and October 29 is now near $0.0786.

During the pullback, that trendline has functioned as a ceiling for price. A confirmed break above it would suggest buyers are taking on the lower-high sequence that has capped DOGE's recovery.

Momentum gauges on the four-hour chart point to scope for additional upside.

The relative strength index (RSI) is near 58, a sign that buying pressure has picked up. At that reading, DOGE's RSI shows firmer demand but does not signal an overheated market.

At the same time, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is still slightly positive.

Combined, the RSI and MACD suggest DOGE's recovery has a technical foundation. Still, the signals are fairly tame and do not ensure a lasting breakout.

The next upside objective for Dogecoin sits at the descending resistance trendline near $0.0786.

A durable four-hour close above that barrier could reinforce bullish momentum and point the way to $0.0806.

$0.0806 matters especially as it lines up with the 200-period EMA and horizontal resistance on the four-hour chart.

If the trendline holds, renewed selling could emerge and traders could lock in profits after the latest bounce.

To the downside, the 50-period EMA near $0.0762 is the immediate support. A sustained move beneath it would dent the near-term bullish view and point to fading buying momentum.

Further down, support sits near $0.0723, a horizontal zone that could draw fresh buying interest.

Should selling pick up and DOGE slide below $0.0723, the next downside target would be around $0.0677.