Solana climbs after Democratic midterm win fuels Iran war exit hopes

Solana staged a strong recovery in the previous session after Democrats captured control of both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections.

The market appears to view the Republican defeat as a factor that could push President Trump toward ending the Iran conflict, which would then support economic growth and risk appetite as energy prices decline.

A similar pattern was visible in oil markets on Wednesday, where prices dropped sharply after Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the election loss. His message on X reinforced expectations that the administration may seek a way out of the conflict rather than escalate.

It should be noted, however, that Trump legally retains the authority to continue military operations against Iran even with Democrats controlling Congress. So forcing him out of the war is not straightforward, and the final decision remains with him. For now, the market appears to be pricing in this scenario.

Going forward, attention will remain on US-Iran negotiations. A diplomatic resolution would likely lift Solana by improving growth expectations and risk appetite, especially given its high-beta nature. Conversely, an escalation could trigger a fresh selloff as growth concerns rise and investors rotate into safe-haven assets.

Solana technical view on the daily chart

On the daily chart, Solana is trading near the major ascending trendline. Sellers are expected to lean on this line with a defined risk above it, targeting a break below the trendline. Buyers, on the other hand, want to see the price break higher to increase bullish bets toward the 148.00 level, with the 113.00 area as an initial target.

Four-hour timeframe analysis for Solana

On the 4-hour chart, there is little new to add. Sellers have a better risk-reward setup near the descending trendline, while buyers need a breakout to extend the rally to fresh highs or a bounce from the major upward trendline.

One-hour chart breakdown for Solana

On the 1-hour chart, a minor support zone sits around the 94.00 handle, where the price has been rejected multiple times recently. If a pullback occurs, buyers are likely to step in at this support with a defined risk below, aiming for a break above the major downward trendline. Sellers, conversely, will look for a break lower to increase bearish bets toward new lows, targeting a break below the major upward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Catalysts ahead

Today brings the latest US jobless claims figures. On Friday, the week concludes with the US non-farm payrolls report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.