Kalshi bans George Santos for life, fines $70,000 for market manipulation

Kalshi has handed former congressman George Santos a permanent ban from trading on its platform — the first such penalty it has ever issued. The company also imposed a fine exceeding $70,000 after he manipulated a market contract linked to whether he would attend the State of the Union address.

The lifetime ban comes less than a year after President Donald Trump commuted Santos's seven-year prison term. Santos had served fewer than three months before being released.

A Congressman Undone by His Own Story

Santos took New York's third congressional district in the 2022 elections. Journalists subsequently discovered that he had invented his educational and professional background. He also misrepresented aspects of his family history. Federal prosecutors later brought charges of misusing campaign contributions and committing identity theft. The House voted to expel him in December 2023, making him just the sixth lawmaker ever to be removed from Congress. Santos pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft and received an 87-month prison sentence. Trump commuted that sentence in October, eliminating the remaining time as well as fines and probation.

“George Santos was somewhat of a ‘rogue,’ but there are many rogues throughout our Country that aren’t forced to serve seven years in prison.”

Trump posted that message on Truth Social when he announced the commutation. The president had not supported Santos's 2022 congressional bid. In the same post, he cited Santos's loyalty to the party as sufficient justification for the clemency.

Lifetime Trading Ban Follows Insider Trading Allegations

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated prediction market. It detected unusual activity in Santos's account involving a contract that wagered on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. From February 2 through February 25, Santos made substantial bets on that contract. He also issued public statements that incorrectly described his intentions, and those statements influenced the contract's price. Santos ended up with profits of nearly $17,840. He bet against his own attendance and then failed to show up. Kalshi imposed a permanent ban, unlike the temporary suspensions it handed out in four other recent instances. Santos had declined to cooperate with the investigation. Separately, in July Santos had already agreed to pay $35,000 to resolve a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation into the same trades, as detailed in the earlier CFTC fine. Santos thanked Kalshi for the ban on social media and also derided the platform's prospects for survival.

Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.

Let's see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) August 31, 2026

This case follows Kalshi's earlier penalty against a staffer for similar bets on Trump's speeches. That suggests prediction markets are reinforcing their oversight.