Pezeshkian aims for US ceasefire deal before midterms, welcomes nuclear oversight

Crude oil prices have been fluctuating based on both missile-related headlines and diplomatic developments; this latest news falls into the latter category. It increases the downside risk for oil traders if the negotiations result in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's willingness to allow nuclear inspections is significant because it addresses a key US demand, giving it more substance than a mere call for peace. However, there is a caveat: markets are discounting these words until they are accompanied by concrete actions regarding Hormuz or the blockade. Since the midterms serve as a deadline for both sides, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to any indication of progress from Iran and the US in the next few weeks.

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Previous coverage:

• Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed expectations of a Hormuz agreement, pushing oil to a one-week high.
• France is dispatching troops and air defense systems to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia as Houthi assaults escalate.

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According to Trump, Iran is biding its time until the midterms, while Pezeshkian states that Iran seeks a deal prior to the elections. Both sides are attempting to blame the other for the lack of progress, and oil traders are watching to see if any of this leads to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Key points:

• Pezeshkian said Iran expects the US to rejoin the June ceasefire agreement before the November midterm vote.
• The June memorandum outlined a temporary ceasefire that subsequently fell apart.
• On Tuesday, Trump stated that he thought Tehran was postponing an agreement until after the midterms.
• Pezeshkian stated that Iran is willing to accept inspections of its nuclear sites.
• He denied that his administration attempted to assassinate Trump or his relatives.
• In New York, negotiators are discussing a phased arrangement under which Iran would reopen Hormuz and the US would lift its blockade.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran aims to reinstate its ceasefire understanding with the US prior to the November midterm elections. He made the comments during an interview with NBC News and other media on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. He expressed that Iran does not want the issue to extend until the election and hopes the US will rejoin the memorandum of understanding before that time.

The memorandum was signed in June and established a temporary ceasefire between the two nations. That accord later broke down, and the nearly seven-month conflict has since become a stalemate, with Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut and the US enforcing an economic blockade on Iran.

Pezeshkian's remarks directly contradict President Donald Trump, who said on Tuesday that he thought Tehran was delaying an agreement until after the elections to gauge his electoral performance. By himself proposing a deadline before the midterms, the Iranian president seems to be attempting to shift responsibility for any delay onto Washington.

Pezeshkian also stated that Iran is willing to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities. This is a potentially important development because nuclear inspections have been a longstanding US requirement. He additionally denied that his government had attempted to assassinate Trump or his family members.

These comments come while US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased exit from the war, under which Iran would reopen Hormuz and the US would remove its blockade. Both sides are cautious about relinquishing leverage. An Iranian official has described US demands as excessive, and a European official has portrayed Iran's list of requests as very extensive.

Oil markets have responded rapidly to both military (missile) events and diplomatic signals. Traders are looking for concrete actions, not just declarations of intention.

Whether the negotiations can yield a renewed memorandum in the weeks leading up to the midterms (Tuesday, 3 November 2026) hinges on whether either side is willing to make the first move on Hormuz or the blockade. Until that happens, the president's comments represent an initial proposal, not a breakthrough.