September Australian flash PMIs due ahead of RBA hike

A preview of Australia's flash PMIs: September figures come just days ahead of an anticipated RBA rate increase.

The preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' indexes for Australia in September are scheduled for release at 23:00 GMT (7pm US Eastern) on Wednesday, translating to 9am Thursday on Australia's east coast.

Final readings for August indicated continued growth in the private sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace than July. The services PMI fell to 53.2 from 53.6, staying above the 50 threshold that marks expansion versus contraction; the final number was revised up from a flash estimate of 52.9. Manufacturing remained at 52.0, flat from July, while the composite index dipped to 52.7 from 53.2.

Underlying the headline figures, the details pointed toward inflation. The August flash survey indicated input cost increases due to higher prices for fuel, freight, commodities and raw materials, accompanied by modest hiring and a slight rise in outstanding work. In the manufacturing sector, growth was propelled by domestic production and new orders, whereas export demand remained weak.

This is significant because the Reserve Bank of Australia is broadly anticipated to tighten policy. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35% following 75 basis points of hikes earlier in 2026, and all four of Australia's major banks now project a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60% at the September 29 meeting.

• All four major Australian banks now see RBA hiking to 4.60% on September 29
• RBA Governor Bullock highlights inflation risks amid focus on higher neutral rates

When it comes to September's flash figures, the main issue is not so much whether the headline indices remain above 50 but rather what the price sub-indexes reveal. Strength in cost and selling-price measures would strengthen the argument for tightening, whereas a more pronounced deceleration in services activity or employment could intensify the discussion regarding November. Any deviation is likely to be reflected initially in the Australian dollar and short-term government bond yields.

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Aside from the Australian PMIs, the data calendar is sparse.