SpaceX Shares Drop 4% Ahead of Starship's First Orbital Mission

A lockup expiration releasing around 328 million shares saw SpaceX stock fall more than 4% on September 23, one day before the event.

This selling pressure occurs ahead of Starship Flight 14, the rocket's first planned trip into Earth orbit and its first revenue-generating mission.

Starship Flight 14 Aims for Orbit With Revenue-Generating Cargo

On September 24, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the company is readying for a launch on Monday, September 28. By that time, the launch tower's mechanical arms had already stacked Ship 41 atop Super Heavy Booster 21.

Preparing for launch on Monday https://t.co/uoRfT549bl

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 24, 2026

Previously, all Starship tests were intentionally kept on suborbital paths. This time, the fully assembled 124-meter rocket targets an orbit roughly 275 kilometers above Earth, SpaceX says. The flight should last nearly 10 hours and circle the planet about six times.

Additionally, the ship will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites instead of dummy mass. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen described the flight as the vehicle's first revenue-generating mission.

However, SpaceX will not try to catch the rocket with the tower. Both stages are expendable, so the booster will splash down in the Gulf of Mexico. The ship will execute a deorbit burn and come down in the Pacific west of Chile.

Why SpaceX Stock Faces Selling Pressure

In mid-September, news of the orbital attempt first lifted shares above $150. Since then, fresh supply has weighed on SpaceX stock. The company releases insider shares in stages rather than all at once, and the first tranche unlocked in August.

The previous tranche unlocked on September 9, and the stock fell 3.9% that day.

Still, the expiration does not force anyone to sell. Instead, the real impact depends on how many insiders cash out. Further tranches are scheduled through June 2027.

On the fundamental side, Wall Street treats Flight 14 as a key proof point. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas holds a Buy rating and a $300 price target, implying about 99% upside. In his view, the market underprices SpaceX's AI and orbital computing plans.

A clean orbit and satellite deployment would give Starship its first commercial proof. Until then, SpaceX stock looks caught between launch progress and a growing pool of tradable shares.