AUD/USD slides 1.02% as key technical levels break

AUDUSD traded in both directions yesterday but remained below its 100-hour moving average for most of the session. That average was tested again around 0.7116 at the start of Asian trading today, but buyers were unable to break above it. After turning lower and pulling away from the average, sellers took control.

The first key downside test was the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.70795 from the rally off the July 29 low. The pair bounced from that level toward yesterday's low near 0.70908, but the recovery faded. Sellers then pushed it below both the retracement and the 100-day moving average at 0.70737.

Those breaks are significant because the 50% level and the 100-day moving average gave buyers two chances to defend support. Buyers had their opportunity. When both failed to hold, selling pressure increased.

Sellers push into the next support zone

The decline extended into a swing area between 0.7020 and 0.7027, an area defined by highs from mid-June. The session low at 0.7026 reached that zone. The pair also came within roughly 8 pips of its rising 200-day moving average at 0.70177. It now trades near 0.70395.

For less experienced traders, a former resistance level can turn into support after a market breaks above it. Those who bought the earlier breakout may try to defend the level on a retest, while others may view it as a chance to take profits on short positions. This does not guarantee a bounce, but it offers a reason why the market could pause here.

Conditions for a buyer recovery

The swing area and the 200-day moving average define 0.7018–0.7027 as the critical support zone. Buyers looking for a rebound can lean on this area, but a sustained break below the 200-day moving average would signal that support is no longer holding.

The first step toward a recovery would be a move back above the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.70422. The price is currently just below it. Getting above that level would give buyers a small win, but the more important test is the former 100-day moving average near 0.70737. A bounce into that average that stalls would keep sellers in charge.

If support breaks

A sustained drop below the 200-day moving average at 0.70177 would be the first such break since November 2025, marking a major shift in the long-term technical picture. It would be unwise to contest a break that holds below that level; sellers would have cleared the support zone that currently gives buyers their best chance to slow the decline.

For now, the question is whether buyers can defend the 0.7018–0.7027 area and reclaim 0.70422. If they cannot, sellers remain in control.