AUDUSD briefly breaks below 200-day MA for first time since November 2025

This week saw a sharp decline in AUDUSD as the US dollar strengthened. A more hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials, rising Treasury yields, and a market-implied October rate hike probability of about 66% contributed to the move. Higher US yields tend to boost the dollar's appeal, weighing on currency pairs like AUDUSD.

On Wednesday, the technical outlook worsened as AUDUSD broke below its 100-day moving average decisively. This brought the 200-day moving average, now around 0.70217, into the sellers' focus.

During Thursday's early Asia-Pacific trading, the price touched that level and briefly slipped under it. Buyers responded, driving the pair higher, but the rebound failed to reach the 0.70515 midpoint, the 50% retracement of the move up from the late-June low. The session high was 0.70447. By the close, AUDUSD had reversed down and finished under its 200-day moving average.

A new test occurred on Friday. AUDUSD dropped to 0.7005 early in the Asia-Pacific session, the weakest since August 4. A broader selloff in the US dollar, which also pushed USDJPY lower, along with better risk appetite, allowed AUDUSD to climb back above the 200-day MA. The bounce reached 0.7036, but the pair has since drifted back toward that level.

This leaves market participants facing a choice at a well-known price point.

The drop under the 200-day MA is significant because it was the first such breach in almost 11 months. This average is widely watched as an indicator of the long-term trend. However, AUDUSD has already dropped from 0.7237 to roughly 0.7000 over only 12 trading sessions. After such a steep decline, some sellers might lock in profits, while some buyers may seek a rebound. A recovery back above the MA shows buyers are making an effort, but alone it does not confirm the downtrend is finished.

What would signal that buyers are gaining the upper hand?

A sustained hold above the 200-day MA would be a first step. The next challenge is 0.70515, the 50% retracement that capped the previous day's rebound. Breaking that could bring the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages, both around 0.70688, into play. Reclaiming those levels would strengthen the argument that selling pressure is relaxing.

What would maintain the sellers' grip on the market?

If the pair slips back under the 200-day MA and then breaks below the support at0.7000, focus would turn to the 0.6962–0.6978 range. Beyond that, traders would target 0.6920.

Currently, the 200-day MA serves as the key barometer. Buyers have recaptured it, but must defend it and overcome overhead resistance. Sellers managed to push the pair under it at the previous close; another drop below, particularly under 0.7000, would revive the bearish targets.