XRP bounces back, yet derivatives data tempers bullish outlook

Key takeaways

• XRP’s long-to-short ratio stands at a bullish 1.06 as funding rates turn negative.
• XRP holds above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.284 and $1.255.
• A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 could place $1.90 in focus.

XRP continued its recovery on Thursday after it found support at significant technical thresholds. Still, with funding rates, long-to-short positioning, and on-chain indicators sending mixed messages, market participants are not convinced the rebound has legs.

The token changed hands near $1.30, holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A close above $1.353, its 200-day EMA, is needed to reinforce the recovery.

Traders split on XRP positioning

XRP’s long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.06 on Thursday, nearing its strongest reading in over a month, CoinGlass data show.

A reading above one indicates that long positions outnumber shorts, which points to a moderately bullish positioning bias.

Funding rates add another layer of complexity to the derivatives outlook. XRP’s funding rate went negative on Wednesday, sitting at -0.0040% on Thursday.

Negative funding means shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open, a sign that bearish positioning has grown more aggressive.

That runs counter to the bullish long-to-short ratio and underscores the absence of a clear consensus among futures traders.

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators flag caution across both XRP’s spot and futures markets.

XRP shows early signs of overheating, while the futures market reflects sell-side dominance. A pickup in retail activity could also amplify volatility if leveraged bets get crowded.

All told, the data suggest XRP has yet to draw enough consistent demand to confirm a durable recovery.

XRP steadies above the $1.25–$1.28 support zone

The token traded around $1.30 on Thursday, keeping its structure neutral and range-bound. It remains just above the 50-day EMA at $1.284 and the 100-day EMA at $1.255. Together, those averages form a support cluster stretching from roughly $1.25 to $1.28.

The Relative Strength Index sits near 46, suggesting momentum is neutral to weak. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also below zero, meaning bullish momentum has not yet returned in full.

A slip below the moving-average support cluster could put the psychological $1 level in play.

The 200-day EMA at $1.353 is the token’s most significant near-term ceiling. Closing above it on a daily basis would brighten the technical picture and could clear the way for a move toward the next major resistance zone near $1.90.

If XRP cannot clear $1.353, it will likely stay stuck in its current range, leaving the $1.30 area vulnerable to another retreat.