Bitcoin Holds Firm Despite Two Setbacks, But On-Chain Data Warns of Trouble

Bitcoin (BTC) absorbed a Fed rate hike and a failed Senate vote within 48 hours, yet its price remained steady. However, a significant on-chain level failed to hold.

Glassnode had foreseen the week's test. A second consecutive daily close below the True Market Mean would transform a minor dip into a breakdown. That is precisely what happened on Wednesday.

News Had Little Impact, But the Range Collapsed

The CLARITY Act was unable to advance in the Senate on September 15. This legislation aimed to determine which US regulator would oversee digital assets, and traders had viewed it as a positive factor.

On that same day, Bitcoin funds experienced $450.33 million in outflows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum products together saw $592 million in combined outflows, which marked the deepest single-day ETF outflows in months.

The Fed's decision followed. Policymakers voted unanimously to raise the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Projections indicated that 16 of 18 officials now foresee another hike occurring this year.

Contrary to expectations, Bitcoin rose on this news. The price increase happened within minutes, moving from approximately $75,350 to above $76,100 right after the announcement.

At press time, BTC was trading near $76,297, showing a 0.58% gain over 24 hours but a 2.5% decline over the week.

Both events had been fully priced in by the markets prior to their occurrence, which explains the minimal price reaction. However, the damage was visible in the daily closes. Bitcoin finished Wednesday at $76,187, marking a second consecutive close under the True Market Mean of $76,700.

This level represents the average price paid by active market investors and has served as the floor for Bitcoin's range since late August.

The price had briefly dipped below this mark on August 23 and September 10, recovering on both occasions. A single loss was a slip; a second one signals a break.

“That leaves price just under the bottom of the range it has held since late August,” Glassnode said. “The next cost basis down is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.3K, the average price paid for coins bought in the last five months.”

Capital Inflow Halted Before the Vote

The rally that established the range relied on fresh capital, which has now dried up. Realized Cap, which values each coin at its last traded price, increased for 27 consecutive days through September 14 but turned negative on September 15.

The Senate vote alone cannot account for this shift. ETF demand had already weakened in the preceding week, with spot Bitcoin funds losing approximately $334 million between September 8 and 14.

No new money has arrived to fill the gap. Stablecoin supply, the cash that fuels the next market move, has remained flat over the week at approximately $301 billion.

The buyers who drove the 2025 rally have also disappeared. Publicly listed companies acquired around 5,900 BTC over three months, compared to 89,000 BTC in July 2025 alone.

Their average entry price near $80,500 now sits above the current spot price, leaving these holders underwater and unlikely to provide support.

Options traders have noted the same shift. Within hours of the Senate result, the one-week skew moved from paying a premium for upside to paying one for downside.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Not all analysts interpret the week as a breakdown. On-chain analyst Willy Woo places the odds that the bottom has already been reached at 90%.

“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long-term investor liquidity returning,” he said.

That assessment depends on the return of long-term liquidity. However, ETF flows, stablecoin supply, and treasury purchases have all moved in the opposite direction.

Seasonality also offers some support to the bulls. Analysts have referred to September as a “nothing month” for Bitcoin, with many expecting the bottom to form in October.

Until then, key levels will define the range of possibilities. The upside ceiling lies between $83,000 and $86,000, where long-term holder supply is most concentrated. On the downside, bids are found down to roughly $68,000, with support thinning out below that until approximately $61,000.

Two consecutive daily closes back above $76,700 would restore the range, but only if accompanied by new capital. Without it, $71,300 and the $62,000-$65,000 floor will determine how far the decline goes.