XRP entered October 2026 up 48% in Q3 but faces seasonal headwinds, with forecasts pointing to a range between $1.47 and $1.70.
XRP (XRP) begins October 2026 following a 48% gain in the third quarter, marking its best Q3 in four years. The token remains 59% below its July 2025 record peak of $3.65.
Robust institutional interest now collides with a historically tough month, and the evidence suggests a sideways October.
U.S. spot XRP ETFs hold approximately 1.16 billion XRP, valued at around $1.76 billion. Total net inflows hit a record close to $1.68 billion, per XRP Insights.
In addition, Ripple is hosting its Swell event in New York from October 27 to 29.
Yet October has historically been a weak month for XRP. The asset has averaged a 5.14% loss in October and ended the month lower in both 2024 and 2025.
Markets also price in as much as a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its October 27-28 meeting.
Ripple can also unlock up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1. Additionally, the CLARITY Act failed in a Senate vote of 49 to 50 on September 15.
XRP's typical fourth-quarter strength tends to come later, with median November gains of 80% and December gains of 63%.
Glassnode data indicates that XRP exchange balances have dropped from roughly 12.9 billion to 11 billion coins since April. About 1.6 billion XRP left exchanges in just the past two weeks.
The biggest outflows occurred during the late-September decline. However, the stepped reductions may partially be due to custody transfers.
Outflows also preceded the August rally, happening two days before XRP surged from $1.00 to above $1.50.
Daily ETF inflows peaked at around 22 million XRP in late August and 20 million around September 24.
Large holders reportedly accumulated 470 million XRP over five days last week. Meanwhile, Binance's XRP scarcity index recently dropped to its lowest point since January 2025.
Still, inflows were concentrated during rallies and paused during the summer sell-off. ETF demand seems to track price, so inflows may taper if XRP stalls.
On the weekly chart, XRP broke the descending trendline that had capped price since the July 2025 high. A strong August candle confirmed the breakout.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) also broke its own downtrend and now sits near 55, above the midpoint. XRP has support between $1.47 and $1.50.
However, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September.
The four-hour chart shows a mature symmetrical triangle, with its lines converging around October 3. Resistance is at $1.59, with support at $1.47 and $1.38.
The four-hour RSI registers a neutral 47, while lower highs suggest selling pressure.
A breakout could aim for $1.83, roughly 23% above the $1.49 lower boundary. A breakdown could push XRP toward $1.17, the 0.786 Fibonacci level, about 21% lower.
Swell and the Fed decision both fall in the final week of October. Until then, XRP may trade between $1.47 and $1.70, while a weekly close above $1.70 could set the stage for November.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
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