Brandt's Biggest FX Bet Is Short EUR/JPY as Yen Strengthens
Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
Over 2,400 arrested in France after cost-of-living protests turned violent, damaging property and adding risk to the euro.
The political risk from the domestic unrest is weighing on the euro, which was already softer in early Asia-Pacific trading, and on French government bonds, where investors are sensitive to any strain on spending. Fiscal space is tight. France's high debt and deficit mean the spread of French borrowing costs over German Bunds is the main test of whether markets perceive a fiscal or political cost. Retailers and luxury groups with big French retail footprints face direct damage and higher insurance premiums, as well as the risk of weaker store traffic if the disruption goes on. A renewal of yellow-vest-style protests would stretch these risks well past a single weekend.
Saturday's national day of peaceful protest over living costs was taken over by rioters, giving France a record number of arrests, a town hall destroyed by fire, and a government that has little fiscal room to address the underlying anger.
France is assessing the damage from one of its worst days of rioting in years. Nationwide demonstrations against the cost of living and poor public services descended into rioting, looting, and arson on Saturday, leaving roughly 2,400 people arrested and almost 1,000 police officers hurt, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez stated.
The interior ministry put the count of marchers at more than half a million, while the CGT union estimated it at 800,000. The majority of demonstrators voiced their anger peacefully over fuel prices, inadequate wages, and the condition of schools, with student protests that have lasted a month merging with broader social frustrations. Masked groups in the crowds broke off to attack public buildings, loot shops, and engage police, who used tear gas, batons, and water cannon to respond.
The destruction was widespread. In Limoges, the over-century-old town hall was set fire to and its clock tower collapsed in the flames; much of it was destroyed, according to local authorities. The tourist office in Lyon was burned down. A masked group forced its way into Bordeaux's prefect's residence, and protesters entered Marseille city hall. In Paris, luxury stores, supermarkets, bakeries, and wine merchants were vandalized and ransacked. Paris police stated that more than 850 arrests in the capital alone was a record.
The casualties were not confined to the police forces. One demonstrator died following a cardiac arrest in Paris, while Le Figaro reported a teenager lost a hand to a police grenade in Saint-Etienne. Reuters noted renewed skirmishes broke out in Paris and Marseille on Sunday.
Carrefour CEO Alexandre Bompard said 50 stores were damaged, with 20 looted, putting losses in the tens of millions of euros. Roland Lescure, the economy minister, promised support for affected companies.
In a televised speech, President Emmanuel Macron denounced the violence as unjustifiable. He distinguished between peaceful demonstrators with genuine grievances and those focused on destruction. Macron rejected calls from the right to declare a state of emergency, but said prefects could ban protests where needed to protect public buildings and businesses. He promised transparency regarding the police response. The government blamed far-left groups and opportunistic criminals.
The riots have swiftly turned into a topic of the 2027 presidential race. Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally, appealed for calm and charged the hard left with making the violence seem acceptable. Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed, who had supported the protests, separated his movement from the looting and called on Macron to respond to student requests.
The upcoming challenge is whether online appeals to bring back the yellow vest protests gather pace. The government's ability to purchase calm with fresh spending is severely restricted by the heavy debt and large deficit.
Share to
Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
The PBOC is expected to announce its daily USD/CNY midpoint around 0115 GMT, with Reuters estimating it at 6.6758.
MUFG expects the ECB to hold next week and deliver two more hikes through Q1 2027. It sees EUR/USD at 1.12 by year-end.
Stock futures point to sharp losses, oil nears $100, and Treasury yields fall amid renewed Iran strike fears. Earnings beats fail to lift some shares.