Five Inflation Drivers Keeping Pressures Elevated
An analysis examines five factors that may keep inflation elevated: the Iran war, AI spending, consumer resilience, immigration, and government spending.
Inflation, employment, growth data and central bank decisions, and how they reprice risk across markets.
An analysis examines five factors that may keep inflation elevated: the Iran war, AI spending, consumer resilience, immigration, and government spending.
Ex-Atlanta Fed chief Bostic says persistent price shocks and strained households make inflation a bigger concern than employment.
The FOMC raised rates to 3.75-4.00% as expected, with markets pricing three more hikes. The smallest hiking cycle in history was 137 basis points in 1986-87.
Bailey says rate decisions grow harder the longer the Iran conflict lasts; inflation risks still subdued; four hikes not discussed.
Canada's August producer price index rose 1.3% m/m, up from 0.6%. Annual PPI increased 13.5%, and raw materials prices also surged.
US August housing starts at 1.275m missed estimation; permits also lower. Mortgage rates near 7%; relief may come after Iran war, if ever.
美国9月费城联储商业指数37.8,高于预期30.5,前值47.4,分项数据有升有降。
US weekly initial jobless claims totaled 196,000, well below the 208,000 estimate, signaling a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Latin America grapples with whether to require stablecoin issuers to hold reserves locally or offshore, as dollar scarcity grows.
European markets saw gains as oil prices and bond yields eased following the Fed and BOE rate decisions.
The bond yield curve's shape shifts—bear/bull flattening and steepening—signal market expectations about policy, growth, and inflation, but context remains key.
Eurozone annual inflation was revised down to 3.2% in August, with energy prices rising 14.3%.
The BOE is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with focus on whether the vote split narrows to 5-4.
The Fed's 25bp hike and 2026 projection matched expectations, but markets overreacted. The dot plot and Warsh's presser were less hawkish than perceived.
European stocks opened higher as bond yields steadied following the Fed's 25 bps rate hike and oil prices fell.